A new report from the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office paints a stark picture of Hawaiʻi's progress to cut out fossil fuels.
It's over 350 pages, but the key takeaway is simple: Unless the state takes aggressive action now, it will fall short of its goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2045.
On the current path, the state will achieve about a 54% reduction in carbon emissions by 2045, well short of the 100% reduction needed for carbon neutrality, said Monique Schafer, HSEO's decarbonization program manager and lead on the report.
That "business-as-usual" trajectory assumes that the state meets its renewable portfolio standards.
"Just getting to 100% renewable energy, it's been a huge focus," Schafer said, "but it does not alone achieve our emissions targets."
The report proposes three pathways to cut emissions in sectors other than the electrical grid. They include a range of ambitious policy objectives, from considerable investments in sustainable aviation fuel to a ban on the sale of gas cars.
"It is not going to be easy," Schafer said. "But I think we're at a critical moment where we really need to be reevaluating the way we do things."
While such shifts seem daunting (and experts say there's good reason to be daunted), Schafer pointed to one area where the state can make immediate progress: energy efficiency and making sure not to waste power.
That starts with behavioral changes, said Schafer.
"Turning off lights ... simple things like closing the door and not letting the AC blow out full blast," Schafer said. "Taking your old incandescent light bulbs and switching them to LEDs, that's huge."
Gov. Josh Green signed into law a ban on the sale of several types of inefficient fluorescent lamps last year. Rep. Nicole Lowen of Hawaiʻi Island proposed the measure.
"Those bulbs just don't make sense anymore," Lowen said.
Many of the steps to be more energy efficient may seem small, but Schafer said they can add up to make a big difference. If the state needs less power, it has to produce less power, which could shape investments in new energy infrastructure.
"Less renewable energy needs to be built out if you really are aggressive with energy efficiency," Schafer said.
But Lowen said that while efficiency can balance out demand, it is unlikely to reduce the number of overall utility-scale energy projects that the state needs to bring online.
"Realistically, the overall demand will keep growing," Lowen said. "Because a lot of the decarbonization effort is still looking towards electrification."
Part of the process of achieving benchmarks on energy efficiency will be deciding what those benchmarks are. The Hawaiʻi Clean Energy Initiative, established in 2008, set an energy efficiency portfolio standard that called for a 4,300 GWh reduction in electricity consumption by 2030.
But there is no clear path beyond that date.
Lowen introduced a bill last legislative session to extend the portfolio standards to 2045, in line with the state's other climate-related goals.
Blue Planet Foundation advocated for the bill.
"As the decarbonization report mentions, we need to be thinking about energy efficiency as a central question in our planning," said Melissa Miyashiro, executive director of Blue Planet.
That bill almost crossed the finish line with broad support from energy stakeholders and climate advocates but died unceremoniously during the last days of session.
Lowen said there are plans to reintroduce that bill as part of the House Majority Caucus package.
While efficiency offers gains towards our clean goals, Lowen said any real progress is going to require a fundamental shift in our relationship to energy.
"We have this whole kind of industrial revolution history of electricity being relatively cheap," Lowen said, "and not a ton of thought going into how to be really careful with how we use it."
That mindset needs to change, and change quickly, Lowen said.
