Experts are estimating more growth in state general fund revenues this year than previously expected.
The state Council on Revenues is now estimating a 4% annual growth in tax collections for the 2024 fiscal year.
That was also the council’s estimated annual growth last May, but in September it was lowered to 1.3% to accommodate the economic impacts of the Maui fires in August. On Monday it voted to increase its estimate back to 4%.
The council is more confident in estimated tax collections following the unexpected recovery in the labor market and tourism. It now believes there will be about $250 million more in tax collections for the state’s general funds.
Carl Bonham, a council member and executive director for the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, said that the state's tourism industry is healthier than expected.
“Look at the visitor data through November, it's quite a bit strong. It represents several hundred million (dollars) in visitor spending on Maui more than what we thought was going to happen,” he said.
“Overall tourism in the state is, as of the end of the year, stronger than we thought it would have been.”
What’s also impacting the estimate? The council estimates that it was the $311 million constitutional refund that sent out one-time $100 or $300 refunds to Hawaiʻi taxpayers during the last fiscal year.
There was also an $83 million loss with Gov. Josh Green’s tax relief efforts for low-income households. Other factors included economic slowdowns at the state and federal levels.
When taxes are filed in April, the amounts are always relatively unknown for estimating collections, and the council says that’ll again be the case this year.
The council estimates the annual growth in tax collections for the 2025 fiscal year to be 4.75%.
