The waters around Hawaiʻi will likely see a mild hurricane season with one to four tropical cyclones across the central Pacific region, according to forecasters. Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
This year's below-average prediction is due to a quick transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday. Last year, during strong El Niño conditions, four tropical cyclones entered the central Pacific.
Although things look quiet, forecasters said it's still important for residents to be prepared.
"When we talk about preparing for hurricane season, it's really preparing for any sort of weather event: flash flooding, hurricanes, tsunamis, even wildfires — knowing what to do, what your hazards are, and how to react when something bad like that happens," said John Bravender, a warning coordination meteorologist with NOAA's National Weather Service.
The hurricane season also overlaps with high risks of wildfires in the summer.
NWS hydrologist Kevin Kodama said that pattern may look a little different this year. Recent rainfall has pushed the window of “significant fire risk” later in the summer, rather than the usual peak of late July and early August.
Kodama said that's not the case for the leeward slopes of Haleakalā and parts of the Big Island that are still in drought.
Bravender said high levels of rainfall in the spring will also lead to more vegetation growth. "And then as it dries out, it creates more of a concern for wildfire threat later in the summer,” he said.
This interview aired on The Conversation on May 22, 2024. The Conversation airs weekdays at 11 a.m. on HPR-1.
